Food and herbal nutritional products » Advice » The Sky Isn't Falling
The Sky Isn't Falling
View PDF | Print View
by: Guest
Total views: 298 Word Count: 1642
Fareed Zakaria
Editor of Newsweek International, columnist
PostGlobal co-moderator Fareed Zakaria is editor of Newsweek International, overseeing all Newsweek's editions abroad. He writes a regular column for Newsweek, which also appears in Newsweek International and often The Washington Post. He is a member of the roundtable of ABC News' "This Week with George Stephanapoulos" as well as an analyst for ABC News. And he is the host of a new weekly PBS show, "Foreign Exchange" which focuses on international affairs. His most recent book, "The Future of Freedom," was published in the spring of 2003 and was a New York Times bestseller and is being translated into eighteen languages. He is also the author of "From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America's World Role" (Princeton University Press), and co-editor of "The American Encounter: The United States and the Making of the Modern World" (Basic Books). Close.
Fareed Zakaria
Editor of Newsweek International, columnist
PostGlobal co-moderator Fareed Zakaria is editor of Newsweek International, overseeing all Newsweek's editions abroad. He writes a regular column for Newsweek, which also appears in Newsweek International and often The Washington Post.
It certainly looks like another example of crying wolf. Three weeks ago the World Health Organization declared a health emergency, warning countries to "prepare for a pandemic," and said the only question was the extent of worldwide damage. Senior officials prophesied that millions could be infected by the disease. But as of last week, the WHO had confirmed only 4,800 cases of swine flu, with 61 fatalities. Obviously, these low numbers are a pleasant surprise, yet one has to wonder: What did we get wrong?
Why did the predictions of a pandemic turn out to be so exaggerated? Some people blame an overheated media, but it would have been difficult to ignore major international health organizations and governments when they warned of catastrophe. I think there is a broader mistake in the way we see the world. Once we spot a problem, we can describe it in great detail, extrapolating all possible consequences. But rarely can we anticipate the human response to that crisis.
Take swine flu. The virus had crucial characteristics that led researchers to worry that it could spread far and fast. They described -- and the media reported -- what would happen if it went unchecked. But it did not go unchecked. In fact, swine flu was met by a vigorous response at its epicenter. The Mexican government reacted quickly and massively, quarantining the infected population, testing others, providing medication to those in need. The noted expert on this subject, Laurie Garrett, says, "We should all stand up and scream, 'Gracias, Mexico!' because the Mexican people and the Mexican government have sacrificed on a level that I'm not sure as Americans we would be prepared to do in the exact same circumstances. They shut down their schools. They shut down businesses, restaurants, churches, sporting events. They basically paralyzed their own economy. They've suffered billions of dollars in financial losses still being tallied up, and thereby really brought transmission to a halt.
Every time one of these viruses is detected, writers and officials bring up the Spanish influenza epidemic of 1918 in which millions of people died. Indeed, during the last pandemic scare, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2005, President George W. Bush claimed that he had been reading a history of the Spanish flu to help him understand how to respond. But the world today looks nothing like it did in 1918. Public health-care systems are far better and more widespread than anything that existed during World War I. Even Mexico, a developing country, has a first-rate public-health system -- far better than anything Britain or France had in the early 20th century.
One can see this same pattern of mistakes in discussions of the global economic crisis. Over the past six months, the doomsday industry has moved into high gear. Economists and business pundits are competing with each other to describe the next Great Depression. But the world we live in bears little resemblance to the 1930s era. There is much greater and more widespread wealth in Western societies, with middle classes that can withstand job losses in ways they could not in the 1930s. Bear in mind, unemployment in the non-farm sector in America rose to 37 percent in the 1930s. Unemployment in the United States today is 8.9 percent And government benefits -- nonexistent in the '30s -- play a vast role in cushioning the blow from an economic slowdown.
The biggest difference between the 1930s and today, however, lies in the human response. Governments worldwide have reacted with amazing speed and scale, lowering interest rates, recapitalizing banks and budgeting for large government expenditures. In total, all the various fiscal-stimulus packages amount to something in the range of $2 trillion. Central banks -- mainly the Federal Reserve -- have pumped much larger amounts of cash into the economy. While we debate the intricacies of every move -- is the TALF well structured? -- the basic reality is that governments have thrown everything but the kitchen sink at this problem and, taking into account the inevitable time lag, their actions are already taking effect. That does not mean a painless recovery or a return to robust growth. But it does mean that we should retire the analogies to the Depression, when policymakers -- especially central banks -- did many things wrong.
We live in a dangerous world. But it is also a world in which deep, structural forces create stability. We have learned from history and built some reasonably effective mechanisms to handle crises. Does that mean we shouldn't panic? Yes, except that it is the sense of urgency that makes people act -- even overreact -- and ensures that a crisis doesn't mutate into a disaster. Here's the paradox: If policymakers hadn't been scared of another Great Depression, there might well have been one.
The writer is editor of Newsweek International and co-host of PostGlobal, an online discussion of international issues. His e-mail address is comments@fareedzakaria.com.
You're right, the world today is nothing like it was in 1918. Back then travelers took trains and ships (not airplanes, and there are many more people traveling now, therefore faster spread of disease); many families lived in rural areas (now more live in crowded cities and don't have gardens therefore food must be purchased); then families ate at home, mostly food that they had in their pantries or gardens (now many families eat out or pick up fast food and don't have much food stored at home); then cities had some of their food supplied from nearby farms (now that farmland has been paved over and much of our food is shipped long distances, therefore we're dependent on Just-in-Time shipping all along the supply chain); then most houses were not reliant on electricity for their heating (now we rely on our power system to supply heat, light, elevators and water in high-rise apartment buildings, refrigeration for our food, air conditioning, and many medical devices).
On the issue of medical care, there is little surge capacity in our hospitals. In a wide-spread emergency, it won't matter how advanced our medical knowledge is if you won't be seen and treated because the system is overloaded. Ask any ambulance service how often in a week they are told that the closest hospital is on "bypass" and will not receive their patient.
Thanks for a great article - and apologies for the likes of bluelagoon and ybolds, who obviously did not read the article. We are not out of the woods yet with the swine flu, but I always wonder why we allow the media to whip us into a frenzy over the flu. It is an annual event, and it spreads like wildfire no matter what we do. Some are worse than others, but it's not Ebola - that is something we should get overheated about. As long as there has been human history, each generation feels like it's world is more dangerous than the last generations. The truth is, life goes on, and we humans are amazingly adaptive to new threats - the sky is not falling, but we'll be ready if it does.
Please shut up Zakarias. It is very easy to criticize after the fact. In reality what America did after the flu out brake in Mexico was very minimal if nothing while other counties like japan were taking much more preventive measures.But if the flue had killed many Americans for sure people like you would be blaming the administration. You people in the media are no more than a shameless opportunists uninterested in the nation's welfare.
Mr. Zakaria:
You should wait at least another 6-12 months before you pontificate as to the damage brought about by the Masters of The Universe a.k.a Wall Street and the neo-con/conservative cohort's total lack of understanding that the resources of Earth are FINITE as opposed to the infinite amount of toxic waste, by Wall Street, or the amount $ the Feds can print .
Were you intersted in realistic prognistications, you would read up on resource availability in the the future, from oil/gas to rare earth metals, from common goods as copper and lead to all others - then you can base your notions on REALITY.
Wether you and the rest of the power elite, be in USa or otherwise, like it or not 2006 was the apex of standard of living for USA,l and probably for all developed countries. Marthus' theory is applicable to 6.5 billion people and growing - while it was not appliucable to the early years of Industrial Revolution, when cheap energy source seemed unlimited. Cheap energy is the cornerstone of today's economy, and it is coming to an end.
Additional information:
Health Advice - Top Ten Health Tips for a Healthier Today
A 97-Year-Old Physician's Advice on How to Live Well , Health
Health and fitness advice , getting healthy in Teesside - Gazette Live
IVillage.com: Health , Beauty, Pregnancy, Entertainment, Women's
What's the best health advice you ever received? , Ask Metafilter
Eastbourne Borough Council - Health and Lifestyle Advice
Best Health Advice Free Online Health Tips Wholesale24hours365days
Health advice to all single men: Get married! , The Brunei Times
Lower Stress Longevity & Red Wine , Health Advice for Women
How to Avoid Food Poisoning - Health Advice from Dr. Katz - Oprah.com
Related "Health advice":
- India On High Alert To Prevent Swine Flu From Spreading
Mumbai, India (AHN) - As the number of swine flu ... - Consultants scramble to offer firms swine flu advice
What happens when your business is suffering th ... - How to reduce your impact on the planet
Earth Day happens one day a year. But it should ... - Fittest Losers get leaner, healthier and tougher with two weeks to go
It is possible. If there is one message our five ... - US Medical Personnel and Interrogations: What Do We Know? What Don ...
Bush Admin Quietly Rejected Own 'Highly Questiona ...
Rating: Not yet rated (votes: 0)
